Prevê-se que as alterações climáticas aumentem as condições propícias a incêndios florestais. Este estudo produz projeções para as Canárias com base em resultados do CMIP5, cobrindo 1980–2009 e 2070–2099, sob os cenários RCP4.5 e RCP8.5.

Todos os indicadores de risco derivados do Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) agravam-se no fim do século. A época de incêndios poderá alongar até 75 dias/ano, com maior impacto em altitude. Os dias de risco extremo (FWI > 60) aumentam em média 58% (até 12 dias/ano) e a área de alto risco pode crescer 44%.

Climate change is expected to increase fire-prone conditions. This study provides projections for the Canary Islands using boundary conditions from CMIP5, covering 1980–2009 and 2070–2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.

All fire-risk indicators derived from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) are projected to worsen by late century. The fire season may lengthen by up to 75 days/year, with stronger effects at higher elevations. Extreme-risk days (FWI > 60) increase by an average of 58% (up to 12 days/year), and the high-risk area could expand by 44%.

Le changement climatique devrait accroître les conditions propices aux incendies. Cette étude produit des projections pour les Îles Canaries à partir des conditions aux limites du CMIP5, couvrant 1980–2009 et 2070–2099 sous RCP4.5 et RCP8.5.

Tous les indicateurs de risque dérivés de l’indice canadien FWI devraient se dégrader d’ici la fin du siècle. La saison des feux pourrait s’allonger jusqu’à 75 jours/an, avec un effet plus marqué en altitude. Les jours de risque extrême (FWI > 60) augmentent en moyenne de 58 % (jusqu’à 12 jours/an) et la surface à haut risque pourrait croître de 44 %.